WATKINS GLEN – Statistically Speaking
When the rain cleared, there was Smoke! Tony Stewart would win, in a final 25 lap battle with Marcos Ambrose.
Ambrose was second, a career best, and Carl Edwards third. Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kurt Busch, Max Papis, Clint Bowyer and Denny Hamlin rounded out the top 10. Polesitter Jimmie Johnson, seeking his first career road win, finished 12th.
On lap 67, Kyle Busch chose the outside as Stewart took the inside on the restart. This would prove to be fatal for Kyle, as Stewart took control.
A fifth caution, would set up a double-file restart with Stewart and Ambrose. Ambrose dived low but was blocked by Stewart. Ambrose was running on older tires and never gave Stewart a challenge over the final 10 laps.
Will we see these two battle it out again? Let’s compare the numbers and see who’s hot and who’s not at Watkins Glen.
Quotable ;
“I threw everything I could at him,” said Ambrose, who won the Nationwide race here Saturday with a daring move on Kyle Busch. “We got stuck in the back of the pack and had to make a gamble. The extra laps we had on the tires hurt. I closed in on him, could see him make a few mistakes, but we couldn’t quite close the deal.”
Track Numbers
24 – Races
2,123 – Laps
990 – Car
173 -Leaders
186 – DNF’s @ 2.42%
Since 1986
Track Specs
2.45 mile paved road course
90 laps – 220.5 miles
It has 11 turns with a variety of banking in the turns, ranging from 6 degrees to 10 degrees.
2,141 feet – Frontstretch
1,839 feet – Backstretch
9 – Races Won From Pole @ 33.33%
18 – Races Won From Top 10 @ 66.67%
8 – Races Won Outside Top 10 @ 29.63%
Last 5 Road Course Winners
2 -Kyle Busch
1 -Tony Stewart
1 -Jimmie Johnson
1 -Kasey Kahne
Top Team Averages @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
2.00 – JTG Daugherty – 1 race
3.00 – Wood Brithers – 1 race
6.83 – Joe Gibbs – 6 races
8.00 – Germain – 1 race
11.00 – Stewart Haas – 2 races
15.50 – Team Red Bull – 4 races
Top Average Running Pos @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
3.853 – Tony Stewart
7.513 – Jimmie Johnson
9.764 – Denny Hamlin
10.604 – Juan Montoya
13.255 – Kyle Busch
13.794 – Marcos Ambrose
14.216 – Carl Edwards
14.361 – Martin Truex Jr.
15.195 – Jeff Gordon
15.357 – Kurt Busch
Top Driver Average Finish @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
1.4 -Tony Stewart
2.5 – Marcos Ambrose – 2 races
7.5 – Denny Hamlin – 4 races
8.8 – Jimmie Johnson
8.8 – Carl Edwards
10.8 – Kyle Busch
11.2 – Robby Gordon
12.0 – A.J. Allmendinger – 2 races
15.4 – Matt Kenseth
15.5 – Clint Bowyer
Top Average Driver Ratings @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
135.0 – Tony Stewart
106.9 – Marcos Ambrose
106.5 – Jimmie Johnson
104.9 – Kyle Busch
104.6 – Denny Hamlin
101.4 – Juan Montoya
99.4 – Kurt Busch
91.4 – Carl Edwards
89.2 – Robby Gordon
88.9 – Jeff Gordon
Fastest Early In A Run @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
119.444 – Tony Stewart
119.041 – Denny Hamlin
118.871 – Jimmie Johnson
118.732 – Juan Montoya
118.612 – Kyle Busch
118.594 – Marcos Ambrose
118.558 – Kurt Busch
118.485 – Jeff Gordon
118.227 – Ryan Newman
118.200 – Robby Gordon
Fastest Late In A Run @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
119.438 – Tony Stewart
119.300 – Marcos Ambrose
119.058 – Juan Montoya
118.976 – Robby Gordon
118.756 – Jimmie Johnson
118.612 – Kyle Busch
118.519 – Denny Hamlin
118.468 – Carl Edwards
118.458 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
118.457 – Patrick Carpentier
Fastest Laps Run @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
104 – Tony Stewart
39 – Kurt Busch
32 – Kyle Busch
27 – Marcos Ambrose
17 – Jeff Gordon
15 – Juan Montoya
13 – Carl Edwards
11 – Robby Gordon
11 – Denny Hamlin
11 – Jimmie Johnson
10 – Boris Said
Fastest On Restarts @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
116.775 – Tony Stewart
115.793 – Marcos Ambrose
115.756 – Juan Montoya
115.536 – Jimmie Johnson
115.210 – Kyle Busch
115.154 – Kurt Busch
114.976 – Denny Hamlin
114.725 – Jeff Gordon
114.681 – Carl Edwards
114.575 – Martin Truex Jr.
Fastest Green Flag Speed @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
119.570 – Tony Stewart
119.041 – Marcos Ambrose
118.907 – Juan Montoya
118.794 – Jimmie Johnson
118.772 – Denny Hamlin
118.745 – Kyle Busch
118.672 – Kurt Busch
118.505 – Robby Gordon
118.349 – Jeff Gordon
118.286 – Jeff Burton
Top Laps In Top 15 @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
438 – Tony Stewart
407 – Jimmie Johnson
306 – Denny Hamlin
305 – Kurt Busch
292 – Kyle Busch
289 – Carl Edwards
286 -Kevin Harvick
240 – Martin Truex Jr.
238 -Juan Montoya
236 – Ryan Newman
Top Lap Leaders @ Watkins Glen (Last 5 Races)
145 – Tony Stewart
67 – Kyle Busch
61 – Kurt Busch
54 – Jeff Gordon
34 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
28 – Kevin Harvick
9 – Marcos Ambrose
9 -Jimmie Johnson
8 – Ryan Newman
7 – Patrick Carpentier
6 – Jamie McMurray
4 -Bobby Labonte
4 – Scott Speed
Let’s compare what drivers rank at the top when compared at similar tracks. Here, we will compare drivers at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.
Top Average Finishers At Similar Tracks (Since 2008 = 5 races)
4.8 – Tony Stewart
6.4 – Juan Montoya
7.8 – Jimmie Johnson
11.2 – Marcos Ambrose
12.6 – Carl Edwards
13.4 – Kyle Busch
13.8 – Kasey Kahne
14.4 – Greg Biffle
14.8 – Brian Vickers
15.0 – Clint Bowyer
Top % of Laps In Top 15 @ Similar Tracks (Last 5 Races)
86.9 – Juan Montoya
85.9 – Tony Stewart
84.3 – Jimmie Johnson
67.8 – Marcos Ambrose
65.8 – Kurt Bush
63.4 – Kyle Busch
61.8 – Carl Edwards
61.1 – Kasey Kahne
60.1 – Denny Hamlin
58.4 – Kevin Harvick
Average Laps Led @ Similar Tracks (Last 5 Races)
31 – Kyle Busch
18 – Jimmie Johnson
10 – Tony Stewart
9 – Marcos Ambrose
8 – Kasey Kahne
7 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
7 – Denny Hamlin
5 – Kurt Busch
4 – Brian Vickers
2 – Scott Speed
2 – Boris Said
Average Rating @ Similar Tracks (Last 5 Races)
116.3 – Tony Stewart
112.8 – Jimmie Johnson
109.2 – Kyle Busch
107.8 – Marcos Ambrose
107.7 – Juan Montoya
94.6 – Kurt Busch
92.7 – Carl Edwards
90.2 – Kasey Kahne
86.4 – Denny Hamlin
83.0 – Jeff Gordon
Let’s see who is on a roll this season and in the last 3 races on a hot streak. So who’s hot?
Average Finish Leaders – 2010 – Last 3 Races
4.0 – Carl Edwards
5.3 – Tony Stewart
7.0 – Jeff Burton
7.7 – Clint Bowyer
9.3 -Jamie McMurray
9.3 – Denny Hamlin
10.7 – Jeff Gordon
11.0 – Mark Martin
12.3 – Paul Menard
12.7 – Kasey Kahne
Average % In Top 15 – 2010 – Last 3 Races
96.6 – Jeff Burton
92.7 – Jeff Gordon
89.5 – Tony Stewart
87.0 – Kasey Kahne
86.8 – Greg Biffle
86.6 – Juan Montoya
83.3 – Clint Bowyer
81.5 – Carl Edwards
77.6 – Mark Martin
71.5 – Jamie McMurray
Average Rating Leaders – 2010 – Last 3 Races
110.1 – Jeff Gordon
107.6 – Jamie McMurray
107.1 – Greg Biffle
105.6 – Jeff Burton
104.4 – Jimmie Johnson
104.3 – Tony Stewart
101.9 – Clint Bowyer
101.8 – Carl Edwards
100.5 – Juan Montoya
97.9 – Mark Martin
Top Driver Ratings For 2010 Season To Date
109.0 – Jimmie Johnson
106.8 – Jeff Gordon
102.5 – Jeff Burton
97.8 – Kurt Busch
96.4 – Kevin Harvick
96.3 – Kyle Busch
93.2 – Denny Hamlin
90.9 – Juan Montoya
90.3 – Clint Bowyer
89.8 – Tony Stewart
2010 Lap Leaders
879 – Jimmie Johnson
811 – Jeff Gordon
807 – Kurt Busch
695 – Kyle Busch
581 – Denny Hamlin
379 – Jeff Burton
311 – Juan Montoya
294 – Kasey Kahne
228 – Jamie McMurray
192 – Greg Biffle
170 – Kevin Harvick
129 – Clint Bowyer
2010 Win Leaders
5 – Jimmie Johnson
5 – Denny Hamlin
2 – Jamie McMurray
2 – Kurt Busch
2 – Kyle Busch
2 – Kevin Harvick
2010 Top 10 Leaders
15 – Kevin Harvick
12 – Jeff Gordon
12 – Greg Biffle
12 – Kurt Busch
12 – Jimmie Johnson
11 – Jeff Burton
11 – Tony Stewart
11 – Clint Bowyer
10 – Carl Edwards
10 – Kyle Busch
Who To Watch For (My Top 5)
1 – Tony Stewart – This was “Child’s Play”. Ambrose may have the best average finish here (just 2 races) , but Stewart has longevity. Over the past 10 races, ONLY 1 was outside the top 11 @ 26th. The other finishes were 6th, 1st, 11th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd & 1st.
In the last 6 races, 1.34 is his average finish. In these last 6 races, it’s either been 1st or 2nd, nothing else. I’m letting my chips ride on Smoke this weekend to pull up my 8.58 average winning pick for the season up.
2 – Denny Hamlin – A top 10 pick, if that’s what you’re looking for. In four races he has not placed outside of the top 10. Those finishes were 10th, 2nd, 8th and 10th.
3 – Carl Edwards -His first time at bat, a base hit. But since, they have been doubles and triples. However, Cousin Carl has not found that homer yet! His five races here ended in – 19th, 5th, 8th, 9th and 3rd.
4 -Kyle Busch - Same as above, sluggish start, but once he got it going he can’t slow it down. After a disaster in 33rd, he has placed 9th, 7th, 1st and 4th.
5 – Marcos Ambrose – 2.5 average finish in the 2 races he started. Last year’s miscue on pit road put him deep in the field, on worn tires by the time he got to Stewart and ultimately cost him the win. We watched him shut off the engine this year and got sent backwards. He had the car to beat then too. If he can stop shooting himself in the foot, he could do well, heck , even win this thing!
High Hopes
Jeff Gordon – He is doing a lot better this year than last and has had some near misses this season. Not counting last year, when he was tagged and sent spinning like a top, he is a top 20 runner. There was a time when he was a ringer, but as of late, it’s the 20′s @ at 20.2 average finish in the last 10 races.
Jimmie Johnson -Last 5 races here – 5th, 17th, 3rd, 7th and 12th.
Juan Montoya – Last 2 here -4th & 6th.
Kurt Busch – Last 3 here -11th, 10th & 7th.
A.J. Allmendinger – Last 2 here -11th & 13th.
Hold the Phone – Hang Up!
Dale Jr -Last 3 here -42nd, 22nd & 39th @ 34.34 Avg Fin
So, my pick this week is Tony Stewart
Comments are disabled.