Pocono - Statistically Speaking

Denny Hamlin, who won the race, was 6th or better in 7 of 9 starts and led 5 times for 88 laps was not the center of attention for this race. The main focus was on what some drivers called the worst driving they had ever seen.

“The key for us winning that race was two restarts that Denny made when we gave up track position,” crew chief Mike Ford said. “You didn’t want to give up track position, but you needed fuel at some point.”

Joey Logano was in route to a possible top 5 finish before he and Kevin Harvick tangled up in turns 2 and 3. Logano spun around and nearly saved it, but finally spun on around bringing out the caution. His frustration would later spill over into his postrace comments about Harvick. “It’s probably not his fault, you know?” he said. “His wife wears the fire suit in the family, tells him what to do.”

Let’s crunch the numbers and see who’s hot at Pocono and similar tracks.

There were more sparks to fly as Hamlin roared to the finish, a massive nine car pile up was underway and Kasey Kahne was taking flight! Kahne would blame A.J. Allmendinger for the incident. “I don’t know what AJ was doing there,” said Kahne, who finished 27th. “I don’t ever really talk to him much, but you can bet I will be talking to him this week.”

Allmendinger took responsibility for the wreck, but  also stated that  he was simply defending his turf.

Stewart, while admitting he didn’t have enough car to chase down Hamlin, wasn’t pleased either. He called the racing off the restarts “idiotic”. “I’ve seen some of the worst driving I’ve ever seen in my life in a professional series right here today,” he said. “So for anybody that’s looking for drama for the next couple races, start looking because I can promise I’m going to start making the highlight reel the next couple weeks.”

Let’s get to it.

Track Totals

64 – Races

12,618 – Laps

2,617 – Total Cars

680 – Leaders

722 – DNF’s @ 2.45%

Track Specs

2.5 mile tri-oval

200 laps – 500 miles

Banking-

Turn 1 – 14 degrees

Turn 2 – 8 degrees

Turn 3 – 6 degrees

Lengths-

3,740 feet – Front Straight

3,055 feet – Long Pond

1,780 feet – North

65 mph – Pace Car Speed

55 mph – Pit Road Speed

Winning The Race

Won from Pole – 14 of 65 (21.539%)

Won inside top 10 – 47 of 65 (72.308%)

Won outside top 10 – 18 of 65 (27.692%)

Top Avg Finishers @ Pocono (Last 5 Races)

6.80 – Jimmie Johnson

8.40 – Carl Edwards

10.20 – Tony Stewart

11.00 – Kasey Kahne

11.40 – Kevin Harvick

12.40 – Matt Kenseth

12.60 – Jeff Burton

13.00 – Ryan Newman

13.20 – Denny Hamlin

13.60 – Jeff Gordon

Pocono Winners (Last 5 Races)

2 – Denny Hamlin

1 – Kasey Kahne

1 – Tony Stewart

1 – Carl Edwards

Top 10 Leaders @ Pocono (Last 5 Races)

4 – Jimmie Johnson

4 – Tony Stewart

3 – Jeff Burton

3 – Jeff Gordon

3 – Clint Bowyer

3 – Mark Martin

3 – Juan Montoya

3 – Kurt Busch

3 – Carl Edwards

3 – Kasey Kahne

3 – Denny Hamlin

Top 5 Leaders @ Pocono (Last 5 Races)

3 – Denny Hamlin

3 – Tony Stewart

2 – Kevin Harvick

2 – Kasey Kahne

2 -Carl Edwards

2 – Jimmie Johnson

Lap Leaders @ Pocono (Last 5 Races)

196 – Denny Hamlin

158 – Carl Edwards

146 – Jimmie Johnson

145 – Kasey Kahne

82 – Clint Bowyer

66 – Mark Martin

53 -Tony Stewart

32 – Kyle Busch

24 – Kurt Busch

18 – Brian Vickers

Top Nascar Point Leaders @ Pocono (Last 5 Races)

760 – Jimmie Johnson

749 – Carl Edwards

722 – Tony Stewart

706 – Kasey Kahne

703 – Denny Hamlin

667 – Kevin Harvick

653 – Matt Kenseth

639 – Jeff Burton

636 – Clint Bowyer

632 – Ryan Newman

DNF Leaders @ Pocono (Last 5 Races)

4 – Joe Nemechek

3 – Dave Blaney

2 – Sterling Marlin

2 – J.J. Yeley

2 – Patrick Carpentier

2 – David Gilliland

2 – Bobby Labonte

2 – Juan Montoya

Closers @ Pocono (Pos Moved Up=Last 11 Races)

52 – Jeff Burton

41 – Jeff Gordon

40 – Casey Mears

34 – Kevin Harvick

31 – Jamie McMurray

30 – Carl Edwards

29 – Jimmie Johnson

28 – Clint Bowyer

25 – Denny Hamlin

20 – Robby Gordon

Top Avg Driver Ratings @ Pocono (Last 11 Races)

119.1 – Denny Hamlin

103.7 – Kurt Busch

103.7 – Jimmie Johnson

101.4 – Tony Stewart

98.5 – Carl Edwards

96.1 – Jeff Gordon

95.8 – Mark Martin

94.5 – Ryan Newman

93.9 – Brian Vickers

92.0 – Kasey Kahne

Fastest Early In A Run @ Pocono (Last 11 Races)

161.089 – Denny Hamlin

160.766 – Jimmie Johnson

160.718 – Kurt Busch

160.430 – Mark Martin

160.398 – Jeff Gordon

160.329 – Tony Stewart

160.262 – Kasey Kahne

160.244 – Jeff Burton

160.150 – Brian Vickers

160.137 – Matt Kenseth

Fastest Late In A Run @ Pocono (Last 11 Races)

158.283 – Denny Hamlin

157.732 – Kurt Busch

157.726 – Mark Martin

157.584 – Tony Stewart

157.579 – Jimmie Johnson

157.544 – Matt Kenseth

157.454 – Kasey Kahne

157.426 -Jeff Gordon

157.417 – Carl Edwards

157.386 – Ryan Newman

Fastest Laps Run @ Pocono (Last 11 Races)

328 – Denny Hamlin

241 – Kurt Busch

155 – Kasey Kahne

141 – Carl Edwards

119 – Jimmie Johnson

75 – Mark Martin

72 – Greg Biffle

72 – Brian Vickers

70 – Tony Stewart

45 – Jeff Burton

Fastest On Restarts @ Pocono (Last 11 Races)

158.233 – Denny Hamlin

157.772 – Kurt Busch

157.524 – Jimmie Johnson

157.018 – Tony Stewart

156.965 – Ryan Newman

156.940 – Jeff Gordon

156.859 – Kasey Kahne

156.846 – Brian Vickers

156.828 – Kyle Busch

156.650 – Matt Kenseth

Laps In Top 15 @ Pocono (Last 11 Races)

1,612 – Tony Stewart

1,607 – Jimmie Johnson

1,589 – Mark Martin

1,532 – Jeff Gordon

1,490 – Ryan Newman

1,489 – Kurt Busch

1,408 – Matt Kenseth

1,405 – Denny Hamlin

1,401 – Brian Vickers

1,339 – Greg Biffle

Top Flat Track Averages (Since 2008 = 18 Races)

5.17 – Jimmie Johnson

10.06 – Mark Martin

10.44 – Carl Edwards

11.67 – Tony Stewart

11.83 – Denny Hamlin

12.39 – Greg Biffle

13.06 – Jeff Burton

13.17 – Clint Bowyer

13.39 – Jeff Gordon

14.61 – Kurt Busch

Top Flat Track Winners (Since 2008 = 18 Races)

6 – Jimmie Johnson

2 – Denny Hamlin

2 – Mark Martin

1 – Jamie MacMurray

1 – Kasey Kahne

1 – Ryan Newman

1 -Joey Logano

1 – Kurt Busch

1 – Greg Biffle

1 – Tony Stewart

1 – Carl Edwards

Flat Track Top 10 Leaders (Since 2008 = 18 Races)

16 – Jimmie Johnson

12 – Kurt Busch

11 – Denny Hamlin

10 – Carl Edwards

10 – Tony Stewart

9 – Jeff Burton

9 – Clint Bowyer

9 – Jeff Gordon

9 – Mark Martin

Flat Track Top 5 Leaders (Since 2008 = 18 Races)

12 – Jimmie Johnson

8 – Denny Hamlin

8 – Tony Stewart

6 – Carl Edwards

6 – Mark Martin

5 – Jeff Gordon

5 – Kurt Busch

4 – Kevin Harvick

4 – Greg Biffle

Flat Track Lap Leaders (Since 2008 = 18 Races)

1,143 – Jimmie Johnson

453 – Juan Montoya

384 – Mark Martin

316 – Tony Stewart

294 – Kurt Busch

267 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

255 – Kasey Kahne

245 – Denny Hamlin

226 – Carl Edwards

208 – Kyle Busch

Who’s Hot (Avg Fin Last 3 – 2010 Races)

5.0 – Carl Edwards

6.0 – Jeff Burton

7.0 – Kasey Kahne

8.3 – Clint Bowyer

9.7 -Jeff Gordon

12.3 – Kevin Harvick

13.0 – Tony Stewart

Not So Hot (Avg Fin Last 3 – 2010 Races)

25.0 – Juan Montoya

26.0 – Jimmie Johnson

27.0 – Elliot Sadler

27.0 – Marcos Ambrose

Drivers To Watch

Denny Hamlin -He will be going for 3 wins in a row.. In ‘08 and ‘09 he placed 23rd and 38th. The other finishes have been strong being – 1st, 1st, 6th, 3rd, 3rd, 1st and 1st.

Jimmie Johnson – Out of 17 races, ONE , JUST ONE, he placed 42nd and outside the top 15! His last 6 races here were – 5th, 6th, 3rd, 7th, 13th and 5th.

Jeff Gordon – Out of 20 RACES, only 3 were outside the top 14! He will get a win, the question is when will he finally strike?

Tony Stewart -Last 4 races here -2nd, 1st, 10th and 3rd.

Carl Edwards – Last 5 here – 9th, 1st, 2nd, 18th and 12th.

Ryan Newman – Once considered a non contender has shown he can get a good finish here. Last 4 here – 14th, 5th, 14th and 14th. Maybe he’s not a winning pick, but he could be a top 15 contender.

Matt Kenseth – 9 consecutive races of 17th or better. That is an average finish of 11.56! Not too shabby.

Mark Martin -11.42 is his average finish in the last 12 races here. This year’s 29th place finish is weighing that number down.

Kevin Harvick – 10.64 is his average finish in the last 11 races here. I look for him to do well.

Clint Bowyer – He has a spotty past here with a 41st and a 39th finish. The other 7 average out to 9.86 and last 4 were – 6th, 12th, 3rd and 9th.

Wanna Ride A Dark Horse?

Sam Hornish Jr. – Last 3 races here – 10th, 4th and 11th.

Juan Montoya – Last 3 races here – 8th, 2nd and 8th.

If it were me, I would at least try and wait to see how each teams look in practice speeds. Then make a more solid educated decision.

My Pick To Win = Jimmie Johnson

Runner Up – Denny Hamlin

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