Charlotte – Coca Cola 600 Statistically Speaking
Last May, David Reutimann’s gamble to stay out paid off. He actually won with the help of Mother Nature. He was running in 14th when the final caution came out for rain on lap 221 of the scheduled 400 laps. Reutimann inherited the lead when he stayed on the track, while the rest of the lap cars headed to the pits.
Kyle Busch was leading the race, but was putting up with a fast closing Kasey Kahne right before the caution came out.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. was on the losing end of the stick, starting 27th and never moving much higher as he fought an ill-handling car after numerous adjustments on pit road. He would eventually fall 2 laps down and land in 40th position.
Will Mother Nature, or a gamble win it again? Let’s break down the numbers and see who has the best shot statistically speaking.
Track Specs
Superspeedway: 1.5-mile quad oval
Race Length: 400 laps, 600 miles
Banking: turns: 24 degrees; straights: 5 degrees
Straights: Frontstretch – 1952.8 feet; Backstretch – 1360 feet
Grandstand Seating: 171,000
Pit Road Speed: 45mph
Pace Car Speed: 55mph
Track Stats
70 – Races
25,331 – Total Laps
2,937 – Total Cars
730 – Leaders
938 – DNF’s @ 2.38%
May, 2009 Results (Top 15)
David Reutimann
Ryan Newman
Robby Gordon
Carl Edwards
Brian Vickers
Kyle Busch
Kasey Kahne
Juan Montoya
Joey Logano
Matt Kenseth
Denny Hamlin
Bobby Labonte
Jimmie Johnson
Jeff Gordon
Bill Elliot
May Laps Led Stats For Charlotte (2009)
173 – Kyle Busch
33 – Brian Vickers
6 – Jimmie Johnson
5 – David Reutimann
2 – Dave Blaney
2 – Ryan Newman
1 – Michael Waltrip
1 – Robby Gordon
1 – Joey Logano
May Avg Running Position For Charlotte (2009)
2 – Kyle Busch
5 – Brian Vickers
5 – Jimmie Johnson
5 – Kasey Kahne
7 – Joey Logano
7 – Juan Montoya
8 – Carl Edwards
10 – Denny Hamlin
12 – David Reutimann
12 – Matt Kenseth
May % Laps In Top 15 For Charlotte (2009)
99.6 – Kyle Busch
99.1 – Kasey Kahne
98.7 – Brian Vickers
98.2 – Carl Edwards
98.2 – Juan Montoya
98.2 – Joey Logano
97.8 – Jimmie Johnson
95.2 – Denny Hamlin
89.0 – David Reutimann
82.8 – Kurt Busch
Last 2 Races At Charlotte Avg Running Position
4.0 – Jimmie Johnson
5.0 – Kasey Kahne
6.0 – Kyle Busch
8.0 – Matt Kenseth
10.0 – Joey Logano
11.0 – Jeff Gordon
11.5 – Kurt Busch
13.5 – David Reutimann
13.5 – Ryan Newman
13.5 – Mark Martin
13.5 – Tony Stewart
Last 2 Race Avg Finish At Charlotte
5.0 – Kasey Kahne
6.0 – Matt Kenseth
6.5 – Ryan Newman
7.0 – Jimmie Johnson
7.0 – Kyle Busch
7.0 – Joey Logano
8.0 – David Reutimann
9.0 – Jeff Gordon
12.0 – Brad Keselowski
16.0 – Tony Stewart
16.0 – Martin Truex Jr.
Last 4 Races At Charlotte Avg Running Position
5.3 – Jimmie Johnson
5.8 – Kyle Busch
7.3 – Kasey Kahne
10.0 – Joey Logano (2 races)
11.3 – Tony Stewart
11.5 – Greg Biffle
11.5 – Kurt Busch
12.5 – Jeff Burton
12.8 – Mark Martin
14.0 – Jeff Gordon
Last 4 Race Avg Finish At Charlotte
3.3 – Kasey Kahne
5.3 – Kyle Busch
7.0 – Joey Logano (2 races)
7.5 – Jeff Gordon
11.3 – Greg Biffle
11.5 – Jeff Burton
12.0 – Brad Keselowski (1 race)
13.8 – Ryan Newman
14.5 – Mark Martin
14.5 – David Reutimann
Last 4 Race % In Top 15 At Charlotte
96.2 – Jimmie Johnson
94.1 – Kyle Busch
89.1 – Kasey Kahne
84.0 Joey Logano
77.3 – Tony Stewart
76.1 – Kurt Busch
68.0 – Greg Biffle
66.7 – Mark Martin
66.2 – Jeff Burton
65.4 – David Reutimann
Last 4 Race AVG LAPS LED At Charlotte
62 – Kyle Busch
50 – Jimmie Johnson
40 – Brian Vickers
33 – Kasey Kahne
28 – Jeff Gordon
19 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
17 – Kurt Busch
16 – Tony Stewart
15 – Jeff Burton
14 – Denny Hamlin
Last 4 Race Avg Rating At Charlotte
119.6 – Kyle Busch
116.8 – Jimmie Johnson
116.0 – Kasey Kahne
101.0 – Joey Logano
94.6 – Jeff Burton
93.8 – Jeff Gordon
93.7 – Greg Biffle
93.4 – Tony Stewart
92.7 – Kurt Busch
92.1 – Brian Vickers
Top Team Averages At Charlotte
11.25 – Stewart Haas (4 races)
14.00 – Joe Gibbs (13 races)
16.90 – Roush Fenway (20 races)
18.35 – Hendrick (17 races)
18.75 -Earnhardt Ganassi (4 races)
18.93 – Richard Childress (15 races)
Past Winners At Charlotte / Starting Position
2009 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2009 – David Reutimann – 21st
2008 – Jeff Burton – 4th
2008 – Kasey Kahne – 2nd
2007 – Jeff Gordon – 4th
2007 – Casey Mears – 16th
2006 – Kasey Kahne – 2nd
2006 – Kasey Kahne – 9th
Top Charlotte TESTING speeds (Wed PM)
183.943 – A.J. Allmendinger
181.775 – Jimmie Johnson
181.397 – Scott Speed
181.141 – Martin Truex Jr.
181.068 – Reed Sorenson
180.874 – Brian Vickers
180.383 – Jeff Burton
1803.699 – Denny Hamlin
180.687 – Paul Menard
180.626 – Kasey Kahne
Last 10 Races At Charlotte Top Driver Ratings
118.9 – Jimmie Johnson
104.4 – Kyle Busch
102.1 – Kasey Kahne
101.0 – Joey Logano
91.2 – Mark Martin
88.5 – Jeff Gordon
88.5 – Matt Kenseth
88.0 -Brian Vickers
87.6 – Greg Biffle
87.5 – Jeff Burton
85.2 – Carl Edwardsa
84.2 – Tony Stewart
82.6 – Denny Hamlin
81.6 – Kurt Busch
80.3 – Brad Keselowski
‘09 – ‘10 Cookie Cutter Tracks (Avg Fin)
Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte
8.3 – Matt Kenseth
9.9 – Kasey Kahne
11.4 – Jeff Gordon
12.1 – Kurt Busch
12.4 – Ryan Newman
12.8 – Kyle Busch
13.3 – Tony Stewart
13.5 – Denny Hamlin
13.6 – Greg Biffle
14.1 – Jimmie Johnson
14.1 – Kevin Harvick
‘09 – ‘10 % In Top 15 For Cookie Cutter Tracks
88.9 – Kurt Busch
82.4 – Kasey Kahne
82.2 – Denny Hamlin
78.1 – Jeff Gordon
77.9 – Tony Stewart
77.3 – Jimmie Johnson
74.9 – Matt Kenseth
70.5 – Juan Montoya
69.4 – Kyle Busch
62.5 – Greg Biffle
Who’s Hot – Last 3 Races For 2010 (Avg Fin)
3.0 – Kyle Busch
4.7 – Jeff Burton
5.3 – Denny Hamlin
5.3 – Kevin Harvick
5.7 – Jeff Gordon
9.3 – Carl Edwards
9.7 – Matt Kenseth
10.0 – Ryan Newman
10.3 – David Reutimann
12.7 – Martin Truex Jr.
2010 Lap Leaders
709 – Jeff Gordon
589 – Jimmie Johnson
558 – Kyle Busch
471 – Kurt Busch
344 – Denny Hamlin
279 – Jeff Burton
178 – Kasey Khane
172 – Juan Montoya
132 – Kevin Harvick
125 – Greg Biffle
Drivers to watch for the Coca Cola 600.
Being that the winner has won from the top 10 starting position 79 of 102 times, our focus is on those top 10 starters.
My winner has to be
Jimmie Johnson – due to his exceptional record here I have to lean toward the 48 team. In 17 races here, 6 were wins, 4 back to back followed by two 2nd place finishes. His last 3 race average here is 6.67 with last year’s late race coming as a win.
Kasey Kahne – won back to back in 2006 and again in 2008. He just missed later in 2008 placing 2nd. The early race at Charlotte last year, Kahne was charging Kyle Busch for the lead before a pit, then later, Mother Nature reared her ugly face, that took him out of the running. And the last race at Charlotte last year, he placed 3rd. Kahne’s average finish in the last 4 races at Charlotte is 3.25.
Kyle Busch – leads most of the categories and is a strong contender here. The JGR cars will be ones to possibly keep an eye on this weekend. His last 5 races here averaged a 4.8 with those being; 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th.
Jeff Gordon – In the last 5 races there, he has placed 1st, 4th, 8th, 14th and 4th.
Not So Hot
Juan Montoya – Average Finish At Charlotte is 28.7 with 28th, 37th, 30th, 34th, 8th and 35th.
Honorable Mention
Bobby Labonte – loves this place. He is starting 38th, but he has the 3rd best finishing average since 2000 at 10.6.
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