Jimmie Johnson is taking the Chase by storm and Carl Edwards is chasing him.
We’re back at Texas, and Cousin Carl showed the world that he can contend at this track. Earlier this year in the Samsung 500, Edwards built a lead of more than seven seconds over second place Johnson. Two late cautions gave Johnson a fighting chance. One with 39 laps to go for debris, and the other with only 5 to go! Edwards would storm away after each restart. He was just too hot to handle. After the race; “I didn’t have anything at the end for Carl.” Johnson said.
Johnson must average a 9th place finish over the final three races to clinch a third consecutive series title.
“I’m living inside my own head,” Johnson said. “I feel very good about where we’re at and I’m trying hard not to pay attention to outside opinions and what’s really going on out there. So, I’m just keeping my head down and staying focused on the things I can control.”
Edwards has a bunch of ground to gain to catch Johnson. It may not be an easy task. Johnson has so much momentum and the statistics are in his favor. Johnson has the best average at Texas. Out of 10 starts, his average starting position is 9.1 and his average finish is 8.5. Johnson is also on a hot streak, averaging a 3.8 finish in the last five ’08 season races. Now as far as Speedway tracks go, Johnson is supreme, with an average start of 10.8 and average finish of 10.4 out of 168 starts. Edwards has his work cut out for him.
Let’s compare the top four contenders;
Top 10 drivers at Texas
About the track;
Opened in 1997
1.5 mile quad oval
Asphalt surface
58 feet wide
Front-stretch – 2,250 ft with 5 degree banking
Turns – 750 ft with 24 degree banking
Back-stretch – 1,300 ft with 5 degree banking
Pit Road speed – 55 mph
Qualifying is important;
80% have been won from the top 10 starting positions.
60% have been won from the top 5 starting positions.
Manufacturers;
Ford leads with 8 wins – 28 Top 5’s – 43 Top 10’s
Chevy has 5 wins – 33 Top 5’s – 69 Top 10’s
Dodge has 2 wins – 11 Top 5’s – 28 Top 10’s
Toyota has 0 wins – 2 Top 5’s – 3 Top 10’s
Winning Leading Teams;
Roush – 6 wins – 19 Top 5’s – 29 Top 10’s
Hendrick – 2 wins – 15 Top 5’s – 25 Top 10’s
Gibbs – 1 win – 8 Top 5’s – 19 Top 10’s
DEI – 1 win – 7 Top 5’s – 16 Top 10’s
Yates – 2 wins – 5 Top 5’s – 8 Top 10’s
Penske – 1 wins – 7 Top 5’s – 11 Top 10’s
RCR – 1 win – 4 Top 5’s – 13 Top 10’s
Others – 1 win – 10 Top 5’s – 29 Top 10’s
Breaking It Down A Little More (Last 5 Races At Texas) Top 10;
Matt Kenseth – 3 Top 5’s – 4 Top 10’s – 5.40 Avg Fin
Tony Stewart – 2 Top 5’s – 3 Top 10’s – 1 win – 9.40 Avg Fin
Jimmie Johnson – 3 Top 5’s – 3 Top 10’s – 1 win – 10.80 Avg Fin
Jeff Burton – 1 Top 5 – 4 Top 10’s – 1 win – 11.40 Avg Fin
Denny Hamlin – 2 Top 5’s – 4 Top 10’s – 11.40 Avg Fin
Kevin Harvick – 2 Top 5’s – 3 Top 10’s – 11.60 Avg Fin
Kyle Busch – 3 Top 5’s – 3 Top 10’s – 12.60 Avg Fin
Martin Truex Jr. – 1 Top 5 – 3 Top 10’s – 13.60 Avg Fin
Clint Bowyer – 1 Top 5 – 2 Top 10’s – 13.80 Avg Fin
Mark Martin – 1 Top 5 – 3 Top 10’s – 15.20 Avg Fin
Other notes;
There have been 12 1.5 – 2 mile tracks this year. Carl Edwards has won 5 of them placing 2nd once. There were 2 other races where he had the car to win when disaster struck. Once at Atlanta with a blown engine and again at Chicago with a broken splitter.
Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in five of his six races at Texas. His 83% top-10 rate is the best of any driver with more than two Texas starts.
Final word;
I may have let everyone down last week when I picked Johnson to win. You can second guess it all day. If he had not had that speeding penalty on pit road, could he have won? He did fight back to 2nd. I am torn this week between Johnson, Edwards and Kenseth.
Johnson’s ratings and records speak for themselves. He has finished inside the top ten 8 of the last 10 races here. Kenseth has a win and finished in the top ten 7 of the last 10 races here. Edwards won earlier this year at this track and just won at Atlanta, another 1 ½ mile sister track. The only problem with Edwards is, he either finishes well, or way outside the top 10. His record here is, 19th, 1st, 36th, 15th, 12th, 26th and 1st. As you can see, he can be hot or really cold. These stats have me leaning toward Johnson again this week, with Kenseth as my runner-up. With the info I provided above, you decide for yourself.
